北极冰融化

篇一：北极冰带的融化将加速全球变暖进程

北极冰带的融化将加速全球变暖进程

（Start at 59"）This is the VOA Special English ENVIRONMENT REPORT.

United Nations scientists say (1)frozen soil in the (2)Arctic that is (3)melting could be increasing the rate of global warming. They say the melting soil could be releasing air-polluting (4)gases that have been (5)trapped for thousands of years. Scientists say the (6)temperature changes in the Arctic could lead to serious problems. The scientists made the statements at a meeting of the U-N Environmental Program's governing group. The group met in Nairobi, Kenya last week. The Arctic is an area around the North Pole. It includes the Arctic Ocean. It also includes the northern parts of the continents of Europe, Asia and North America. And it includes thousands of islands. The frozen soil in the Arctic is called (7)permafrost. Permafrost is land that stays frozen all year. Almost twenty-percent of the world's land surface is made up of (8)permanently frozen soil. Most of it is in the Arctic.

Scientists estimate that fourteen percent of the world's (9)carbon is stored under the frozen soil. Permafrost has trapped carbon (10)dioxide and other heat-trapping gases for thousands of years. But as temperatures rise, the permafrost melts. This releases carbon dioxide and other harmful gases. These gases trap heat in the (11)atmosphere and increase the temperature of the earth. The process is called global warming.

Soil in the Arctic is frozen to as deep as one-thousand meters. But rising temperatures can change permafrost into a soft, liquid-like material. Scientists say the melting permafrost is already damaging roads, buildings and structures in (12)Greenland and parts of Russia, Canada and Norway. And they say the problems could have a major affect on the living conditions of native people and Arctic (13)wildlife such as reindeer.

U-N scientists say the political reaction to the problem of melting permafrost is slow. They say they are closely watching the situation in the Arctic. But they say more study is needed.

The Arctic Council is a group that represents the governments and people of the Arctic. Arctic

(14)Council (15)ministers are expected to study the dangers of melting permafrost when they meet in Finland in June.

This VOA Special English ENVIRONMENT REPORT was written by Cynthia Kirk.

(1)frozen[ 5frEuzn ]adj.冻结的, 冷冰的, 冷酷的vbl.freeze的过去分词

(2)arctic[ 5B:ktik ]adj.北极的, 北极区的n.北极, 北极圈

(3)melting[ 5meltiN ]adj.熔化的, 融化的, 溶解的, 混合的

(4)gaseity[ ^A5si:iti ]n.气态

(5)trap[ trAp ]n.圈套,汽水闸, (双轮)轻便马车vi.设圈套, 设陷阱vt.诱捕,设陷, 使受限制

(6)temperature[5temprItFE(r)]n.温度

(7)permafrost[ 5pE:mEfrC(:)st ]n.[地]永久冻结带

(8)permanently[5p:mEntlI]adv.永存地, 不变地

(9)carbon[ 5kB:bEn ]n.[化]碳(元素符号C), (一张)复写纸

(10)dioxide[ dai5Cksaid ]n.二氧化物

(11)atmosphere[ 5AtmEsfiE ]n.大气, 空气, 气氛

(12)Greenland[ 5^ri:nlEnd ]n.格陵兰(岛名,位于北美洲的东北部,属丹麦)

(13)wildlife[5waIldlaIf]n.野生动植物

(14)council[ 5kaunsil ]n.政务会, 理事会, 委员会, 参议会, 讨论会议, 顾问班子, 立法班子

(15)minister[ 5ministE ]n.部长, 大臣

篇二：北极融化对佛罗里达影响模型

Take a Bath：北极冰帽融化对Florida海岸的影响与对策

ABSTRACT

论文根据分析数据，提出问题--分析问题，找出原因--根据原因，提出措施的研究思路，研究北极冰帽融化对Florida海岸的影响与对策。

首先，收集比较详尽的数据资料，分析北极冰冒融化、Florida地区主要城市海平面变化、温度变化和全球二氧化碳浓度的时间变化趋势，对Florida地区主要海岸城市今后50年海平面上升进行了预测，发现问题的严重性和迫切性。

其次，建立海平面受北极冰帽融化和全球气温的影响模型，分析得出北极冰冒融化对Florida三个主要城市海平面上升影响的比重分别为0.771，0.777和0.843，指出北极冰冒融化是海平面上升的主要影响因素。

进而，通过分析全球CO2浓度的变化情况，建立模型分析冰帽融化和气温上升的影响因素，指出造成北极冰冒面积逐年减小和温度逐年上升的主要因素是CO2浓度不断升高。

最后，论文量化分析了海平面上升对Florida的被淹面积和当地经济的不利影响，提出了应对措施。并且，通过模型分析了CO2浓度的变化对北极冰帽、Florida有关城市海平面、被淹面积和社会经济的影响。指出，减少CO2等温室气体排放，稳定并降低全球CO2浓度，这是减缓和遏止北极冰帽融化速度、全球气温升高和海平面上升的根本措施。

1 问题重述

本模型研究了由于全球气温升高造成的北极冰帽融化对大陆的影响。具体来说，为佛罗里达海岸一些代表城市在今后50年，每十年作为一个预测点建立模型，并特别注意大型都市区。提出一些适当的回应来处理这些问题。对所使用的数据的详细讨论是答案的一个重要部分

2假设、变量和研究思路

2.1 ASSUMPTIONS

(1) 北极冰冒融化受北极气温升高的影响，不考虑北极地区进行的商业性开采活动和规划中的开采活动不断增加对北极冰融的影响。

(2) 全球气温升高的主要由温室气体排放导致，由于温室气体主要部分是CO2，论文用CO2的浓度代替温室气体浓度进行分析。

(3) Florida海平面上升主要受北极冰冒融化和当地气温上升的影响。

(4) 测算由于海平面上升造成的经济损失时，假设单位陆地面积的GDP相同。

(5) 对回归模型显著性检验取显著性水平为0.05。

2.2 变量说明

2.3 研究流程图

3 数据分析

3.1北极冰帽的变化趋势

自1972年以来人来开始了对北极地区长期的监测活动，我们从美国冰雪数据中心得到了一些可靠的历史数据，这些数据显示，从1972年到2002年的31年间，北极的海冰覆盖面积从12.4458×106 km2降低到11.2467×106 km2，减少了110多万平方公里，这相当与两个法国的面积！不仅如此，冰雪的覆盖程度在近10年中还有加剧下滑的趋势。

图1 1972-2005北极海冰覆盖程度

由图1，北极海冰覆盖面积随时间变化呈现线性特征，可建立如下形式的一元线性模型对北极冰帽覆盖面积进行时间序列分析

S?a?bt

其中a，b为待测参数，S为海平面相对高度，t为时间变量。

由1972-2002年北极冰帽覆盖面积数据进行最小二乘估计，求出参数a,b，得到北极冰帽覆盖面积随时间变化的模型

S?12.3654?70.02996t 6 (1)

（200.2609） (－8.8956) F= 79.1237

其中t=1表示1972年，括号内为变量显著性检验值，F为模型整体性检验值（以下同），该模型变量和整体均显著。由模型(1)可以看出北极冰冒面积以平均每年0.02996×106 km2的速度在缩减。利用模型(1)预测今后50年每间隔十年的北极冰帽覆盖面积，得到如下结果：

表1 北极冰帽融化预测（单位：106km2）

3.2 Florida地区主要海岸城市海平面变化趋势

我们从英国海洋数据中心得到关于Florida部分城市海平面的数据，根据这些数据，作海平面相对高度的散点图如图3.2--图3.5。由图看出，各海岸城市海平面呈明显上升趋势。由数据，用最小二乘方法对四个城市海平面对时间进行回归分析，发现海平面高度随时间呈现显著的线性关系。

图2 Florida洲沿海城市海平面

由表2所得的个城市的海平面时间序列模型，可以看出，四个城市海平面均随时间的上升，据此预测四城市未来50年每十年海平面高度如表3-3。50年内，四城市海平面分别上升9.42cm,11.54cm,10.80cm,4.96cm，平均每10年分别上升

1.884cm,1.507cm,2.159cm,0.991cm。特别是Fernandina海平面明显高于其它地区，并且以较快的速率上升，情况不容乐观。

篇三：四、六级考研英语阅读练习002北极冰带的融化

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±±??±ù′?μ?èú?ˉ???ó?ùè??ò±??ˉ??3ì This is the VOA Special English ENVIRONMENT REPORT. United Nations scientists say (1)frozen soil in the (2)Arctic that is (3)melting could be increasing the rate of global warming. They say the melting soil could be releasing air-polluting

(4)gases that have been (5)trapped for thousands of years. Scientists say the (6)temperature changes in the Arctic could lead to serious problems. The scientists made the statements at a meeting of the U-N Environmental Program's governing group. The group met in Nairobi, Kenya last week. The Arctic is an area around the North Pole. It includes the Arctic Ocean. It also includes the northern parts of the continents of Europe, Asia and North America. And it includes thousands of islands. The frozen soil in the Arctic is called (7)permafrost. Permafrost is land that stays frozen all year. Almost twenty-percent of the world's land surface is made up of (8)permanently frozen soil. Most of it is in the Arctic. Scientists estimate that fourteen percent of the world's

(9)carbon is stored under the frozen soil. Permafrost has trapped carbon

(10)dioxide and other heat-trapping gases for thousands of years. But as temperatures rise, the permafrost melts. This releases carbon dioxide and other harmful gases. These gases trap heat in the

(11)atmosphere and increase the temperature of the earth. The process is called global warming. Soil in the Arctic is frozen to as deep as one-thousand meters. But rising temperatures can change permafrost into a soft, liquid-like material. Scientists say the melting permafrost is already damaging roads, buildings and structures in (12)Greenland and parts of Russia, Canada and Norway. And they say the problems could have a major affect on the living conditions of native people and Arctic

(13)wildlife such as reindeer. U-N scientists say the political reaction to the problem of melting permafrost is slow. They say they are closely watching the situation in the Arctic. But they say more study is needed. The Arctic Council is a group that represents the governments and people of the Arctic. Arctic (14)Council (15)ministers are expected to study the dangers of melting permafrost when they meet in Finland in June. This VOA Special English ENVIRONMENT REPORT was written by Cynthia Kirk. (1)frozen[ ]adj.?3?áμ?, à?±ùμ?, à??áμ?vbl.freezeμ?1yè￥·?′ê (2)arctic[ ]adj.±±??μ?, ±±????μ?n.±±??, ±±??è| (3)melting[ ]adj.è??ˉμ?, èú?ˉμ?, èü?aμ?, ?ìo?μ?

(4)gaseity[ ]n.??ì? (5)trap[ ]n.è|ì×,?????￠, (????)?á±??í3μvi.éèè|ì×, éè?Yú?vt.ó?2?,éè?Y, ê1êü?T?? (6)temperature[ ]n.???è

(7)permafrost[ ]n.[μ?]óà???3?á′? (8)permanently[ ]adv.óà′?μ?, 2?±?μ?

(9)carbon[ ]n.[?ˉ]ì?(?a??·?o?C), (ò???)?′D′??

(10)dioxide[ ]n.?t???ˉ?? (11)atmosphere[ ]n.′ó??, ????, ??·?

(12)Greenland[ ]n.??áêà?(μo??,??óú±±?à?Tμ???±±2?,ê?μ¤?ó)

(13)wildlife[ ]n.ò°éú?ˉ?2?? (14)council[ ]n.?t???á, àíê??á, ?ˉ?±?á, 2?òé?á, ì????áòé, 1??ê°à×ó, á￠·¨°à ×ó (15)minister[ ]n.2?3¤, ′ó3?

篇四：北极融化可能耗费全球60万亿美元

Rapid thawing of the Arctic could trigger a catastrophic economic timebomb which would cost trillions of dollars and undermine the global financial system, say a group of economists and polar scientists.

Governments and industry have expected the widespread warming of the Arctic region in the past 20 years to be an economic boon, allowing the exploitation of new gas and oilfields and enabling shipping to travel faster between Europe and Asia. But the release of a single giant pulse of methane from thawing Arctic permafrost beneath the East Siberian sea could come with a $60tn [39tn] global price tag, according to the researchers who have for the first time quantified the effects on the global economy.

Even the slow emission of a much smaller proportion of the vast quantities of methane locked up in the Arctic permafrost and offshore waters could trigger catastrophic climate change and steep economic losses, they say.

The Arctic sea ice, which largely melts and reforms each year, is declining at an unprecedented rate. In 2012, it collapsed to under 3.5m sqkm by mid September, just 40% of its usual extent in the 1970s. Because the ice is also losing its thickness, some scientists expect the Arctic ocean to be largely free of summer ice by 2020.

The growing fear is that as the ice retreats, the warming of the sea water will allow offshore

permafrost to release ever greater quantities of methane. A giant reservoir of the greenhouse gas, in the form of gas hydrates on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS), could be emitted, either slowly over 50 years or catastrophically fast over a shorter time frame, say the researchers.

The ramifications of vanishing ice will also be felt far from the poles, they say because the region is pivotal to the functioning of Earth systems, such as oceans and climate. The imminent disappearance of the summer sea ice in the Arctic will have enormous implications for both the acceleration of climate change, and the release of methane from off-shore waters which are now able to warm up in the

summer, said Prof Peter Wadhams, head of the Polar ocean physics group at Cambridge University and one of the authors of the paper published in the journal Nature.

This massive methane boost will have major implications for global economies and societies. Much of those costs would be borne by developing countries in the form of extreme weather, flooding and impacts on health and agricultural production, he said.

According to the authors, who using the Stern review, calculated that 80% of the extra impacts by value will occur in the poorer economies of Africa, Asia and South America. Inundation of low-lying areas, extreme heat stress, droughts and storms are all magnified by the extra methane emissions, they authors write. They argue that global economic bodies have not taken into account the risks of rapid ice melt and that the only economic downside to the warming of the Arctic they have identified so far has been the possible risk of oil spills.

But, they say, economists are missing the big picture. Neither the World Economic Forum nor the International Monetary Fund currently recognise the economic danger of Arctic change. [They must] pay much more attention to this invisible time-bomb. The impacts of just one [giant pulse of methane] approaches the $70-tn value of the world economy in 2012, said Prof Gail Whiteman, at the Rotterdam School of Management and another author.

The Nature report comes as global shipping companies prepare to send a record number of vessels across the north of Russia later in 2013, slashing miles travelled between Asia and Europe by over 35% and cutting costs up to 40%.

According to Russian authorities, 218 ships from Korea, China, Japan, Norway, Germany and elsewhere have so far applied for permission to follow the Northern sea route (NSR) this year. This route uses the Bering Strait between Siberia and Alaska and is only open for a few months each year with an icebreaker.

But following 2012's record collapse of the Arctic sea ice, shipping companies are gaining

confidence to use the route. In 2012, only 46 ships sailed its entire length from the Atlantic to Pacific oceans and in 2011 only four. The route can save even medium-sized bulk carrier 10-15 days and hundreds of tonnes of bunker fuel on a journey between northern Norway and China.

Satellite data collated from the US National snow and ice data centre in Boulder, Colorado this week showed ice loss now accelerating and, at 8.2m sqkm (3.2m square miles) approaching the same extent as during last year's record melt. Over 130,000 sqkm of sea ice melted between July 1 and 15. Compared to the 1981 to 2010 average, ice extent on July 15 was 1.06m sqkm (409,000 square miles) below average, said a spokesman.

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据《卫报》7月24日报道，一组经济学家和极地科学家表示，北极迅速融化可能引发灾难性的经济定时炸弹。这个定时炸弹可能会耗费全球几百万亿美元，破坏全球金融系统。

政府和工业界预估过去二十年范围不断扩张的北极圈气候变暖可能促进经济发展，因为这使 天然气和油田得以开发，加快欧洲与亚洲间海运的速度。但是，研究人员首次提出北极融化能造成经济损失的具体数额。东西伯利亚海下北极永久冻土融化后，每大 规模释放一次甲烷气体，就可能带来全球60万亿美元（约368万亿元）的损失。

他们表示，北极永久冻土和近岸区封存的大量甲烷中仅有一小部分缓慢释放出来也可能触发灾难性的气候变化和导致严重经济损失。

北极海冰每年以史无前例的速度大量融化和重组。2012年9月中旬，北极海冰面积缩小至350万平方公里，仅仅是20世纪70年代时总面积的40%。由于海冰自身不断变薄，一些科学家估计2020年，北极海大多数夏季冰将不复存在。

越来越让人恐惧的是，海冰面积缩减，海水变暖将使近岸区的永久冻土释放更大量甲烷。研究人员称，东西伯利亚北极大陆架（ESAS）以天然气水合物形式储存的大量温室气体也可能因此而释放，也许需要50年时间慢慢释放，又或者灾难性地在很短时间内全部释放出来。

北极对海洋和气候等地球系统至关重要。北极发生变化，冰块融化，全球多地将受到影响。 彼得瓦德汉姆教授（Prof Peter Wadhams）说：北极圈夏季海冰迅速消失，将加速气候变化和促进近岸区甲烷释放，现在，甲烷气体使得夏季气温越来越高。 彼得瓦德汉姆教授是剑桥大学极地海洋地理工作组的负责人，也是《自然》一篇论文的作者之一。

他说：大量甲烷气体会影响全球经济和社会。发展中国家将承受大部分恶果，包括极端气候和洪灾，人类健康和农业生产也会受到影响。

根据论文作者运用斯特恩报告（Stern review）方法计算的数据，从经济方面来看，非洲、亚洲和南美洲相对贫困的经济体将承担80% 的影响。作者写道：额外释放的甲烷将带来低海拔地区洪水、极端热应力、干旱和风暴问题。他们认为，全球经济主体尚未考虑冰川快速融化的风险，至今仅发 现石油泄漏是北极变暖导致经济下滑的可能风险。

但是，作者认为，经济学家遗漏了关键的问题。鹿特丹管理学院、论文另一作者盖尔怀特 曼教授（Prof Gail Whiteman）称：世界经济论坛（World Economic Forum）和国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund）最近都没有意识到北极变化对经济的危害。（他们必须）更加关注这枚可视的定时炸弹。2012年，（甲烷大量释放）使世界经济花费70万亿美元 （约429万亿元）处理其带来的各种问题。

2013年后半年，全球大量海运船只准备穿过俄罗斯北部北冰洋海域，数量之多，将创下纪录，此举使得亚洲和欧洲之间的航运距离缩减超过35%，成本降低40%。

据俄罗斯当局称，至今，来自韩国、中国、日本、挪威、德国等地共计218艘船只已经递 交今年行驶北海航线（NSR）的申请。这条航线会经过介于西伯利亚和阿拉斯加之间的白令海峡（Bering Strait），破冰船每年会对这条航线进行破冰，该航线每年仅开放几个月。

但是根据2012年北极冰海面积缩减的记录，海运公司越来越有信心使用这条航线。 2011年，仅有4艘船只完成从大西洋到太平洋全程，2012年，有46艘船只完成全程。如果中型散装货船行驶这条航线，航行时间可以缩短10至15天， 也可以在挪威和中国之间节省几百吨燃料。

坐落于美国科罗拉多州博尔德的美国国家冰雪数据中心（US National snow and ice data centre）本周卫星数据显示，融冰不断加快，2013年初至7月24日，北极冰融化面积达到820万平方公里（320万平方英里），相当于去年全年的 冰融化面积。7月1日至15日间，超过13万平方公里海冰融化。发言人称：7月15日海冰范围是106万平方公里（409,000平方英里），低于 1981年至2010年的平均值。

篇五：015-补全短文-第十五篇 北极的冰正在融化

+第十五篇The Arctic〔北极的〕 Ice Is Thawing〔融化〕

Father Christmas may have to move his "workshop" fom the North Pole〔极点、顶点〕 because global warming is thawing the ice beneath〔在…下方〕 his feet and his reindeers' 〔驯鹿〕feet as well〔还有〕 His "workshop" is in Dire〔可怕的〕 straits〔困境〕.The "platform"〔平台〕 for the"workshop" is melting〔融化〕, said Stefan Norris of the World Wildlife Fund〔基金会〕 environmental〔环境的〕group's Arctic Program.

An eight-nation report by 250 scientists published recently predicted〔预言、预测〕 the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free〔不会冻冰的〕in summer by 2l00 because of a build-up of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere, mainly from buming fossil fuels〔燃料〕 in car's or factories. The North Pole is geting more and more inhabitable〔可居住的〕to Father Christmas. Young people learn that Father Christmas’ "workshop" produces millions of gifts delivered 〔交付〕by him on a flying , reindeer-drawn sleigh〔雪橇〕. Hollywood movies like "The Polar Express "tried to make viewers believe that Father Christmas lives at the North Pole. The "Fortress〔要塞〕 of Solitude〔孤独〕" is near the North Pole that could be under threat〔威胁〕 in a warmer World. Alan Boldt, spokesman of the Danish Ministry〔政府部门的部〕 of Science, suggested ways to rescue〔营救〕 Father Christmas. Another altermative，he argued， would be building some electrical facilities to ensure the ice stays on the North Pole for him. "This should be a subject for the United Nations," he said. "Danmark could build windmills to provide Father Christmas with power. "Denmark says Father Christmas's real home is Greenland , which will help, Denmark thinks,to strengthen its position in claiming the sovereignty over the Pole. "Doesn't he already speak Danish?" Boldt said frostily〔frosty寒冷的〕 when asked if Father Christmas would be forced to learn Danish if Denmark won international recognition of its claim〔要求〕to the Pole. Last month's Arctic report said the region〔地区〕 is warming twice as fast as the rest of 〔其余的〕the globe, partly because dark ground or water, once uncovered. soaks up more heat than ice or snow. Finland has been most favored〔支持〕 by Father Christmas and it has

about 500 ,000 tourists〔旅行者〕a year to visit its Christmas center in Rovaniemi in Lapland.

A However, Nordic nations all reject it by claiming that their countries are his home.

B Therefore the North Pole is the most attractive place in the world.

C If Denmark's claim were accepted intemationally , it would have the legal right to search for oil. and gas at the North Pole.

D One of them would be building a giant floating ice rink for the workshop if the Pole thaws. E Maybe Father Christrnas has already moved to Rovaniemi.

F He may have to move from the North Pole within our children's lifetimes.

第十五篇北极的冰正在融化

圣诞老人也许要不得不把他制造礼物的“工场”从北极搬到其他地方了，因为受全球气候变暖的影响，他和他的驯鹿居住的北极地区的冰块正在融化。他的“工场”处于可怕的困境中。世界野生动物基金会北极计划环境组成员Stefan Norris 说，“工场”的“平台”正在融化。

最近刊登的一份由250 名科学家完成的八国报告预测，由于大气中捕捉热量的气体的形成，到2100 年夏天北极将会变成无冰的世界，这些气体主要来自汽车或是工厂排出的废气。北极越来越不适合圣诞老人居住了，在我们孩子的有生之年里，圣诞老人也许要不得不搬离北极了。年轻人都知道圣诞老人的“ 工场”每年生产数以百万计的礼物，他乘着驯鹿拉的雪棉飞往世界各地分发礼物。好莱坞电影“极地快车”想让观众相信圣诞老人的故乡在北极。然而，北欧国家不同意这种说法，他们都声称自己的国家才是圣诞老人的故乡。

“孤独要塞”靠近北极，在变暖的世界里可能处于危险之中。丹麦科学部发言人Alan Boldt 提出了拯救圣诞老人的办法，其办法之一就是如果北极的冰融化，就人工造个浮冰场地，上面可以承载圣诞老人的“工场”。他提出的另一个办法就是建造一些电力设备来确保北极的冰不会融化。“应该由联合国来负责这项工作，”他说道，“丹麦可以建造风车来为圣诞老人提供电力。”丹麦认为， 说圣诞老人的故乡是格陵兰有助于加强丹麦声称自己拥有北极的主权的地位。如果丹麦的这一要求得到国际社会认可的话，他就拥有合法的权利去勘测北极的石油

和天然气。

当被问道如果丹麦得到国际社会认可其拥有北极的主权地位时会不会迫使圣诞老人学丹麦语时， Boldt 冷谈地答道：“他不是已经会说丹麦语了吗?”上个月的北极报告说到北极地区变热的速度是地球上其他地区的两倍，其一部分原因是由于没有覆盖物的黑地或黑水要比冰或雪吸收更多的热量。圣诞老人很眷顾芬兰，每年约有50 万名游客来参观罗瓦涅米的圣诞中心。说不定圣诞老人已经移居罗瓦涅米了。

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