英语翻译In the previous section we decided the threshold,below which the occurrence of dry years is independent.In this section we will derive the return and duration characteristics of dry years using the Poisson process for the thresholds of me
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英语翻译In the previous section we decided the threshold,below which the occurrence of dry years is independent.In this section we will derive the return and duration characteristics of dry years using the Poisson process for the thresholds of me
英语翻译
In the previous section we decided the threshold,below which the occurrence of dry years is independent.In this section we will derive the return and duration characteristics of dry years using the Poisson process for the thresholds of mean-0.5stdv,mean-0.75stdv,and mean-1.0stdv.
One comment to be added here is that Eq.(5),representing the probability of consecutive t dry years during t years,is independent of the occurrence of dry years at tC1 year.That is,Eq.(5) is said to represent the occurrence probability of more than t consecutive dry years.
As the probability here depends on just one parameter l,the importance of deciding a proper threshold cannot be overemphasized.The parameter l can be estimated by dividing the number of dry years by the total number of years.For the annual precipitation data at Seoul,the parameter ls estimated are compared for several thresholds (see Table 11).Also,the observed and estimated probabilities of consecutive dry years using the parameter ls in Table 11 are compared in Table 12.
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英语翻译In the previous section we decided the threshold,below which the occurrence of dry years is independent.In this section we will derive the return and duration characteristics of dry years using the Poisson process for the thresholds of me
在上一章节中,我们确定了临界值,在这个临界值之下,干旱年的发生是独立的.在这一章节中我们将为mean-0.5stdv,mean-0.75stdv, and mean-1.0stdv(专业名词,不会翻译)用泊松方法从干旱年的返回特征和持续特征开始入手.在这里加上的一个内容就是,代表了在t年里,持续t年干旱年的几率的方程式,是在tC1年独立于干旱年的发生的.那就是说,方程式代表了多于t年持续干旱年的发生几率.由于这里的可能性取决于一个参数I,因此确定一个合适的临界值的重要性就不用过分强调了.这个参数I可以通过分离总年数中的干旱年数来估算.由于首尔的年降水量数据,这个被估算的参数与几个临界值做了比较(见表11).并且,用表11中的参数观察和估算的持续干旱年的可能性在表12中比较.