From two thousand and...to twenty-...,forward or backward?如题,谈谈感想吧能写出一篇美文来最好了中英文皆可 没人能看懂标题的意思吗？和年份有关 200分就这么没了以后要注意分类，还有，标题

From two thousand and...to twenty-...,forward or backward?如题,谈谈感想吧能写出一篇美文来最好了中英文皆可 没人能看懂标题的意思吗？和年份有关 200分就这么没了以后要注意分类，还有，标题
From two thousand and...to twenty-...,forward or backward?
如题,谈谈感想吧
能写出一篇美文来最好了
中英文皆可
没人能看懂标题的意思吗？
和年份有关
200分就这么没了
以后要注意分类，还有，标题

From two thousand and...to twenty-...,forward or backward?如题,谈谈感想吧能写出一篇美文来最好了中英文皆可 没人能看懂标题的意思吗？和年份有关 200分就这么没了以后要注意分类，还有，标题
20年后,中国经济实力是日本的10倍
中国共产党第十一届三中全会是一九七八年十二月二十二日结束的,今天刚好三十年了.以结束日子算才对,因为当天公布了两项决定：一、中国开放改革；二、邓小平复出,并获授予最高权力.当时相信的人不到一小撮,而今天不相信的还有一小撮.信也好,不信也好,还认为这三十年中国的经济发展不是奇迹的是白痴.
从求学时候的科目选修到师友的交流到研究的探讨到为兴趣而翻阅,我算是个史学家了.然而,坐下来执笔写此文,回顾自己平生所遇,我对历史的记载失却了信心.历史是由人写出来的,信得过吗?回顾自己生存的七十三年,对国家的感受,跟我读到的他家之见很不一样.学院派的学者写中国经改,用文件资料,我没有读过一篇自己认同的.另一方面,朋友或网上客对中国的评论,我同意的不多,而朋友之间的看法也往往有别.
一个人对自己身在其中的世界怎样看,其依凭是他读到或听到的讯息,加上自己的观察与经历.我不例外.各各不同,将来的历史学者要相信谁的故事呢?只有上帝才知道我对中国经济改革的看法是否有过人之处,但自己的经历不同,所学不同,治学的方法也不同,看法无可避免地「自成一家」.跟进了中国那么久,写下文章无数,将来写中国经济史的有较大机会考虑我说的.真理重要,中国经改的真理重要,衷心希望自己写下的是真理,不误导.
是奇异的遭遇,机缘确是巧合了.出生约六年,日本仔胆大包天,在同一天轰炸香港及珍珠港.不久后母亲带着孩子在国内逃难了.经历过中日之战,也经历过国共之争.一九四五进入佛山华英中学附小,四八年初,还没有解放,华英取消了学生每早起来背诵孙总理遗嘱这项目,而每早必唱的「三民主义」国歌,奇怪地改为《义勇军进行曲》.四八年暑期回到香港,之后的暑期多访广州,什么公私合营、三反五反等天天听到长辈说.五七年中赴北美后,大跃进,人民公社,大炼钢,文化大革命,等等,皆跟进.当时两位姊姊在中国,而在美国的大学里,对中国有兴趣的学者不少是朋友.图书馆收藏的大字报以六块美元一张购入,后来才知道不少是香港商人的假冒印制品.
所学也巧合.专于价格理论,论文重于产权及交易费用的研究.因为佃农分成合约的结构性明显,启发了合约经济理论的产生,让自己从合约的角度看制度.这就是不久前我发表的《中国的经济制度》的理论基础了.不容易找到另一个人生于中日之战,中国经改三十年后的今天还活着,还有魄力每星期写两篇难度相当高的经济文章.我说过的人类历史此前没有出现过的大时代转变,整个过程有我份,时来风送滕王阁,尽己所学多写文章总要比王勃有较好的理由.
一九七九年九月到广州探望两位姊姊之后,十月在《信报月刊》发表《千规律,万规律,经济规律仅一条》.这应该是第一篇论及产权及交易费用的中语文章.好些年后才知道不少北京朋友读过该文.我是第一个研究西方经济学的对中国经改看好的人.那是一九八一年,写好了《中国会走向资本主义的道路吗?》的文稿,理论严谨,肯定地推断中国会走向市场经济.可惜不同意的同事朋友无数,要到一九八二才力排众议地发表.该小书不仅把中国的大方向说对,细节也对,要不是那么多同事反对,我会更大胆地写细节,把中国跟着的二十多年的历史先写了出来.
从来不隐瞒自己以理论逻辑作推断的本领（一笑）,但这些年我隐瞒着的,是当年对中国的乐观推断有一个秘密.那就是批评中国人诸多不是我不反对,但撇开这些,炎黄子孙是一个了不起的民族,站起来去做任何事,其它民族不容易斗得过.中国的经改有成,不可能是因为贪污、行骗、权力斗争、法治问题,等等,而是因为有数之不尽的干部,经历过我经历过的,看到了机遇,站起来大干一手.做生意的本领中国人早就名满天下,见有利可图都跑出来了.劳苦大众呢?不容易找到那么多的吃得苦的人.中国人聪明,吃得苦,学得快,是我当年深信不疑的局限秘密.
我喜欢把中国这三十年的经济发展与日本在战后不久的三十年黄金岁月相比,因为有不少可比之处.日本的文化源于中国,但中国的比较厚,也比较纯,略占优.日本的人口密度高于中国,后者的总人口约高十倍.中国的土地很多没有什么用途,但从可用的人均土地与天然资源算,中国看来也略胜,算来算去二者差不多.日本比中国优胜的,是五十年代经济起飞时,他们的科技与知识水平在国际相对上远胜八十年代初期的中国.日本的不幸,是在经济政策上他们犯了两项大错.其一是在被迫下日圆大幅升值,从三百六十兑一美元升至八十兑一美元.其二是禁止农产品进口,使八十年代初期的地价升得太高了.我是在八十年代中期发表《日本大势已去》的.
这就带来一个逃避不了的问题.中国人口是日本的十倍,将来的经济实力可以等于十个日本吗?如果可以,水晶球说是什么时候呢?
读者可能不知道,或不记得,六、七十年代日本的经济发展,的确把西方的先进之邦吓得叫救命.日本货从说笑话提到的「日本闹钟」（大声夹冇准也）到精确无比的石英表到摄影机到玩具到纺织品到汽车到大洋船,没有一样不把西洋鬼子吓破了胆.当时我在美国,行内的朋友有一句笑话：The Japanese have an absolute advantage in everything!一个小小的日本能把整个世界的经济搞得天翻地覆,惹来众人皆欲杀,中国如果成为十个日本,不是很过瘾吗?左推断右推断,我认为只要中国不拿起石头砸自己的脚,先进之邦大方地放一马,想不出理由中国的经济实力不会强如十个日本.应该过之,如果中国不像日本当年,政策上走错了两大步.
要多长时日中国的经济实力才会达到十个日本的水平呢?三年前我算过,只要不大步行差踏错,大约需要二十年.
是开放改革三十周年的大日子,中国的文化传统不容许我说负面的话.太太知道我写此文,说不要再批评了,要说好的.我因而谈谈自己的经历,好叫北京的朋友知道年多来我屡发牢骚的背景.要是二十年后我还活着,见到中国只是三几个日本,不知要找谁出气才对?
从学术生涯那方面看,我对中国的经改是感激的.这经验不仅启发了我写下无数文章,而不久前发表的《中国的经济制度》,自觉重要得可以封刀.三年前七十生日那天,我说中国的经济制度是平生知道最好的,神州哗然,跟着骂者不计其数.这里补充,我的意思是考虑到人口与资源的局限,中国的县竞争制度是我知道的最佳经济制度.北京执到宝,希望他们重视这制度,修改一下,界定界定,放宽放宽,然后维护,从而再增加县与县之间的竞争活力.若如是,十个日本何足道哉?

不晓

20 years later, China's economic strength is 10 times that of Japan
The Third Plenum of the Eleventh Chinese Communist Party is the end of December 22, 1978, and today happens to be thirty years....

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20 years later, China's economic strength is 10 times that of Japan
The Third Plenum of the Eleventh Chinese Communist Party is the end of December 22, 1978, and today happens to be thirty years. To end the days count fishes, because the same day announced two decisions: First, China has opened up; 2, Deng Xiaoping back, and was awarded the highest authority. Less than a handful of people who believed at that time, but today did not believe there is a handful. The letter or not to the letter Ye Hao, and still think three decades China's economic development is not a miracle was an idiot.
Elective subjects from the school to the teacher when the Friends of the exchange to the study of the reading for the interest, I am regarded as a historian home. However, to sit down and Zhi Bixie this article to review its own encountered his life, I have lost confidence in the historical record. History is written by people, and trust do? Recalling their survival Qishisannian, the feelings of the country, followed by my reading of his house, very different view. Academic scholars to write Chinese economic reform, with documentation, I did not read one their own identity. On the other hand, friends or online customers of China's comments, I agree with much, but the views of friends often are different.
One's own body in the world in which way you look at their Yiping read or hear his message, coupled with his own observations and experience. I am no exception. Differed, the future historians who want to believe the story? Only God knows my views on China's economic reform is indeed outstanding, but they experience different from what they have learned different methods of inquiry for different views is inevitable, "dreams of." Follow-up of China for so long, wrote numerous articles and will write the history of the Chinese economy a greater opportunity to consider me. Truth and the importance of Chinese economic reform of the truth and the importance of sincerely want to write the truth, not misleading.
Is a singular experience, luck is indeed a coincidence. Was born about six years, Japan, Aberdeen audacious, on the same day, Hong Kong and the Pearl Harbor bombing. Shortly after his mother had fled with their children at home. Experienced the Sino-Japanese war, but also experienced the Kuomintang-Communist struggle. Wa Ying College, Foshan school to enter the 1945, early in 2048, there is no liberation, Wah Ying abolished the students up every morning to recite the Prime Minister Sun Will this project, and each must be sung as early as the "Three People's Principles," the national anthem, it is strange to be changed "National Anthem." Summer returned to Hong Kong in 2048, after more than a summer visit to Guangzhou, what public-private partnerships, the three anti-5 anti-so every day, to hear their elders said. Went to North America in 2057 after the Great Leap Forward, the people's communes, big steel, the Cultural Revolution, etc., all follow-up. At that time two sisters in China, while in the United States, universities, scholars interested in China a lot of friends. Library of posters to six U.S. dollars a purchase, and then I and many of Hong Kong businessmen fake printed.
The school is also a coincidence. Specializing in Price Theory, research papers emphasis on property rights and transaction costs studies. Because the structural tenant share contract clearly inspired by economic theory of contract generation, so that their own system from the perspective of the contract. This is what I have just published "China's economic system" theory foundation. Is not easy to find another life on the Sino-Japanese War, China's economic reform three decades later, still alive, as well as courage to write two a week, a rather difficult economic articles. I have said previously in human history there have been no major changes of the times, the whole process have my copies, the time to send the wind Pavilion of Prince Teng do have what they have learned to write the article than to Wang Bo has a better reason.
In September 1979 to Guangzhou to visit the two sisters later, in October in the "Monthly Journal" published "the law of 1000, 10000 laws, economic laws is only one." This should be first dealt with property rights and transaction costs in the language of the article. Better to know a lot of years after Beijing a friend read the paper. I was the first study Western economics on the Chinese economic reform optimistic person. That was in 1981, written a "China will move toward the capitalist road? "The presentation, theory rigorous, certainly conclude that China would move toward a market economy. Unfortunately, my colleagues do not agree with many friends, to wait until 1982 to speak out against all the odds before. This little book is not only the general direction of the Chinese said yes, the details are right, but for so many colleagues to oppose, I will be more daring to write the details of the Chinese followed the 20 years of history to first write out.
Never conceal their theoretical logic, the ability to make inferences (Laughs), but all these years I have withheld, is optimistic about the year of China's assumption that there is a secret. That is a lot of criticism of the Chinese people than I have no objection, but apart from these, people of Chinese descent are a great nation, stand up and do anything, other nationalities is not easy to Doude Guo. China's economic reform Youcheng, it is impossible because of corruption, deception, power struggles, the rule of law, and so on, but because a few of the countless cadres, have experienced what I experienced and saw an opportunity to stand up and go all out hand. Ability to do business in China has long been renowned the world over who see a profitable are running out. The lower income groups do? Is not easy to find so many people eat bitter. Chinese people smart, eat hard, learn quickly, convinced I made the limitations of the secret.
I like this part of China three decades of economic development and Japan's post-war golden age compared to the near three decades because there are many of the office comparable. Japan's culture is rooted in China, but China's relatively thick, relatively pure, slightly dominant. Japan's population density is higher than China, which is about ten times the total population. The land of China a lot of little use, but is available per capita land and natural resources, China still seems slightly better than that, almost two Suanlaisuanqu. Japan better than China, is the economic boom of the fifties, their technology and knowledge is far superior in the international relative early eighties China. Unfortunately, Japan is in economic policy, they made two mistakes. One is forced under the sharp appreciation of the yen, from 360 to the U.S. dollar rose to 80 dollar. The second is to prohibit import of agricultural products, so that the early eighties the premium rose too high. I was in the mid-eighties on "Japan's hopeless situation" in.
This brings an inescapable problem. China's population is ten times Japan's future economic strength may be equal to 10 Japan? If you can, the crystal ball say when?
Readers may not know, or do not remember, six or seven decades on behalf of Japan's economic development, and has really advanced the state of Western scared Jiaojiu Ming. Japanese goods from the joking references to "Japanese Alarm Clock" (Is there a quasi-loud clip also) to the precision quartz watch to the camera incomparable to toys to textiles to automobiles to ocean vessels, not to the West is not the same as foreign devil terrified. I was in the United States, the industry there is a joke a friend: The Japanese have an absolute advantage in everything! A little Japanese can upside down, the entire world economy, attracted everyone else Yusha, if China were to become 10 in Japan, is not very enjoyable do? Left-right inference inference, I think that as long as China does not pick up shooting ourselves in the foot, advanced the state generously put a horse, could not think of reasons for China's economic strength will not be as strong as the 10 Japan. Should be too, if a Chinese like Japan that year, two big policy wrong.
To long time China's economic strength will reach 10 Japan's level? Three years ago, I have calculated that, if not done anything wrong foot, approximately twenty years.
Is opening up and reform 30 anniversary of the China's cultural tradition does not allow me to say negative words. My wife knows I write this, critics say no again, and say good. I therefore turn to his own experience, well known in Beijing more than a year to my friends know the background of repeated grumble. If Twenty years later I was still alive to see China is only a few three in Japan, I do not know where to turn outlet thing to say?
From an academic career in that aspect, I am China's economic reform is grateful for that. This experience not only inspired me to write numerous articles and recently published "China's economic system" consciously important that it could seal the knife. Three years ago, 70 birthday, I said that China's economic system is the life you know best, Shenzhou outcry, followed by numerous persons accused. Add here that, I mean taking into account the limitations of population and resources, China's system of county competition, I know that the best economic system. Beijing picking up a bao, hoping that they attach importance to this system, changed a bit, to define definition, relax relax, and then to maintain, and thus further increase the competition between counties and county vitality. If so, 10 Japan Hezu Michiya?
（人家用英文问的，就该用英文来回答嘛~）

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